Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 215.088355 257.723855 309.239714 376.905602 464.704675 576.568367 7.328531e+02
2025-09-14 163.672387 213.448227 280.791604 381.373790 532.972362 762.230314 1.155225e+03
2025-09-21 136.921409 189.487395 266.621457 393.534309 609.019865 985.863643 1.765679e+03
2025-09-28 116.161814 167.831837 248.334933 390.972378 657.330189 1183.813492 2.476202e+03
2025-10-05 107.711661 162.318256 252.617000 425.227482 781.953151 1590.899440 4.033269e+03
2025-10-12 99.913391 156.006366 253.608299 453.076948 905.391483 2076.554714 6.472455e+03
2025-10-19 92.528476 148.892010 251.351194 473.461732 1021.663568 2634.080771 1.024294e+04
2025-10-26 85.468399 141.089493 246.066068 485.715397 1124.400982 3245.103906 1.595518e+04
2025-11-02 78.624885 132.597882 237.747636 488.740150 1204.793913 3865.748831 2.422855e+04
2025-11-09 71.508405 122.601837 224.627333 476.897735 1237.386727 4344.903928 3.415690e+04
2025-11-16 65.375655 113.738506 212.461080 464.474034 1263.882648 4841.468695 4.834479e+04
2025-11-23 60.041591 105.827103 201.149093 451.617845 1284.416409 5350.305106 6.877837e+04
2025-11-30 58.912383 106.413318 209.077407 494.327330 1535.662726 7634.771671 1.831483e+05
2025-12-07 55.439096 101.741841 204.293574 500.024392 1651.176151 9352.217811 3.952505e+05
2025-12-14 52.968109 98.886649 203.327508 517.132151 1830.897423 12141.226458 1.223863e+06
2025-12-21 49.676201 93.875408 196.333576 513.482335 1915.065301 14383.705818 3.619900e+06
2025-12-28 49.127572 94.837887 204.413973 562.221787 2310.041780 22261.321321 1.669848e+08
2026-01-04 48.091153 94.564083 209.279954 602.150071 2707.590616 33690.300648 NaN
2026-01-11 46.654161 93.189103 210.982470 631.541268 3082.417584 49521.212386 NaN
2026-01-18 44.897445 90.860871 209.689268 649.274219 3406.948804 70088.776372 NaN
2026-01-25 42.856099 87.636795 205.378979 653.658943 3643.716687 93832.104836 NaN
2026-02-01 40.354668 83.058971 196.535758 636.508778 3689.538734 110963.170900 NaN
2026-02-08 38.041844 78.757546 187.988596 618.565669 3717.459938 130065.558768 NaN